¿Fortalecerá Vladimir Putin la eurozona?

PARÍS – Jacek Rostowski, ministro de Finanzas de Polonia hasta noviembre pasado, señaló hace poco que el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, no se habría atrevido a hacer la anexión de Crimea si no hubiera observado a Europa angustiada por encontrar una solución a la crisis del euro. ¿Tiene Rostowski razón?

A primera vista dicha relación de temas parece disparatada. La demostración de fuerza incluyó la militar y la amenaza implícita de un embargo de gas; no poder económico (que no tiene). En el transcurso del conflicto de Crimea, se ha puesto el énfasis en la relación de Ucrania con la Unión Europea, no con la eurozona. Además, la historia monetaria reciente de Ucrania se ha definido por una vinculación del tipo de cambio al dólar estadounidense, no al euro. Así pues, ¿por qué sería relevante el euro para la anexión de Crimea a Rusia?

El argumento de Rostowski es que los países europeos demostraron durante la crisis del euro que no tienden a ser solidarios, ni siquiera con sus socios de la unión monetaria. ¿Cuánta solidaridad estarían dispuestos a mostrar a un país no miembro de la Unión Europea? Según dicho razonamiento, Rusia interpretó el control titubeante de la crisis que tuvo la UE como una licencia para actuar. Y por la misma razón podría llegar más lejos.

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