Stärkt Wladimir Putin die Eurozone?

PARIS – Jacek Rostowski, bis zum letzten November Polens Finanzminister, meinte kürzlich, der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin hätte sich nicht getraut, die Krim zu annektieren, wenn er die Lähmung Europas bei der Lösung der Eurokrise nicht bemerkt hätte. Hat Rostowski Recht?

Auf den ersten Blick erscheint eine solche Verbindung weit hergeholt. Putins Demonstration der Stärke bestand aus militärischer Gewalt und der impliziten Drohung mit einem Gasembargo, und nicht auf monetärer Macht (die er nicht besitzt). Während des gesamten Krimkonflikts lag der Schwerpunkt auf der Beziehung der Ukraine zur Europäischen Union, und nicht zur Eurozone. Darüber hinaus war die jüngste geldpolitische Geschichte der Ukraine durch eine Kopplung an den US-Dollar anstatt an den Euro bestimmt. Wie könnte also der Euro für die russische Aneignung der Krim relevant sein?

Rostowskis Punkt ist, dass die europäischen Länder während der Eurokrise sehr wenig Appetit auf Solidarität gezeigt haben – selbst gegenüber ihren Partnern in der Währungsunion. Wieviel Solidarität würden sie dann gegenüber einem Nicht-EU-Mitglied zeigen? Russland, so wird argumentiert, interpretierte die zögerliche Lösung der Krise durch die EU als Freibrief zum Handeln. Und aus dem gleichen Grund könnte das Land noch weiter gehen.

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