Vladimir Poutine va-t-il renforcer la zone euro ?

PARIS – Jacek Rostowski, qui était jusqu'en novembre dernier ministre des Finances de la Pologne, a récemment avancé que Vladimir Poutine n'aurait jamais osé annexer la Crimée s'il n'avait pas été le témoin des tourments de l’Union européenne face à la crise de l'euro. A-t-il raison ?

A première vue, le raccourci semble exagéré. Le coup de force de Poutine s'est appuyé sur l'étalage de sa puissance militaire et la menace implicite d'un embargo sur le gaz, pas sur l'arme monétaire (dont il ne dispose pas). Tout au long du conflit sur la Crimée, on s'est centré sur les relations de l'Ukraine avec l'UE, pas avec la zone euro. Quant la monnaie ukrainienne, elle fait partie de la sphère du dollar, pas de celle de l'euro. Dans ces conditions, quelle relation peut-il y avoir entre la devise européenne et l'annexion de la Crimée par la Russie ?

L’argument de Rostowski est que tout au long de la crise de l'euro, les pays européens ont montré qu'ils avaient fort peu de goût pour la solidarité avec leurs partenaires de l’union monétaire. Dans ces conditions, quel niveau de solidarité pouvait-on attendre à l’égard d’un pays extérieur à l'UE ? Selon Rostowski, Poutine a interprété la gestion hésitante de la crise par l'UE comme un feu vert pour agir à sa guise. Et il pourrait continuer sur sa lancée pour la même raison.

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