Die Lösung des europäischen Glaubwürdigkeitsproblems

PARIS – In der Debatte der Eurozone darüber, wie die Stagnationsfalle dort überwunden werden kann, gewinnt eine Frage immer mehr an Wichtigkeit: Können Regierungen sich glaubwürdig dazu verpflichten, zukünftig die öffentlichen Ausgaben zu begrenzen, wenn sie gleichzeitig sofortige Kürzungen vermeiden? Glücklicherweise ist die Antwort ein „Ja“ mit Einschränkungen: Es gibt Wege, zu gewährleisten, dass auf aktuelle fiskale Gefälligkeiten zukünftig eine Konsolidierung folgt.

Das Wachstum und die Inflation in der Eurozone sind weiterhin viel zu schwach. Die letzte Einschätzung der Europäischen Zentralbank ist ernüchternd, und EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi hat die Tatsache, dass weiterhin Abwärtsrisiken bestehen, nicht verheimlicht. Das nominale BIP-Wachstum – also das Realwachstum plus Inflation – wird in diesem Jahr nicht über 1,5% liegen, vielleicht sogar gefährlich nahe an 1%.

Obwohl die Geldpolitik unterstützend wirkt, steht sie kurz vor ihrem Limit, und die EZB-Initiative zur Kreditstimulierung, in deren Rahmen sie Geschäftsbanken zu extrem günstigen Konditionen Geld leiht, hat sich als nicht so effektiv herausgestellt wie erhofft. Zehnjährige Staatsanleihen mit AAA-Rating erzielen momentan etwa 1%, was zeigt, dass die Märkte nicht mit einer starken Erholung rechnen.

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