解决欧洲的信誉问题

巴黎—在欧元区争论如何摆脱它身陷其中的停滞陷阱之际,一个问题变得越来越重要:政府能够可信地做出削减未来公共支出承诺、同时避免立刻削减支出吗?幸运的是,答案是有条件的“是”:有办法保证现在进行财政调整,随后再进行整合。

欧元区增长和通胀仍然太弱。欧洲央行的最新评估令人悲观,而其行长德拉吉早已不在掩饰风险仍在于衰退的秘密了。今年的名义GDP增长——即真实增长加上通货膨胀——不会超过1.5%,很有可能只有1%左右。

尽管采取了支持性货币政策,但已接近极限,而欧洲央行通过以极优厚的条件向商业银行贷款来刺激信用的方案并没有达到预期中的效果。目前,AAA级十年期政府债券收益率在1%左右,表明市场并不预期会有强劲反弹。

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