Irán, un acuerdo todavía difícil

MADRID – La última ronda de negociaciones en Ginebra entre Irán y el P5+1 (los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas más Alemania) desprende un optimismo cauto que abre una ventana de oportunidad y esperanza. Aunque los detalles de la reunión no sean públicos, su éxito relativo queda patente tras haberse convocado de nuevo a las partes el 7 y 8 de noviembre en la misma ciudad suiza.

El más que deseable acercamiento entre Irán y los países occidentales, sobre todo entre Irán y Estados Unidos, puede tener importantes consecuencias geoestratégicas en la región. Irán tiene que llegar mucho más lejos, pero no es sólo esa la dificultad con la que se topa un posible acuerdo. Las derivadas de esta cuestión plantean problemas relativos a otros actores que también deben ser tenidos en cuenta.

Israel, sin duda, será un uno de los grandes obstáculos para llegar a un acuerdo. El propio Primer Ministro Benjamín Netanyahu apuntaba que no se puede descartar todavía la opción del ataque preventivo. Lo hacía en el Knesset, el parlamento israelí, justo cuando comenzaban las negociaciones en Ginebra. Netanyahu ha hecho de la cuestión nuclear iraní su principal prioridad en política exterior. Desconfía de las intenciones iraníes y pide desmantelar íntegramente las plantas nucleares iraníes. Temen que aunque Irán se quede con una capacidad nuclear residual –para uso civil– desarrolle armas atómicas que amenacen al Estado hebreo. Netanyahu dejó claro en la Asamblea General de Naciones Unidas que no se confía en el nuevo gobierno iraní.

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