Les embûches sur le chemin d'un accord avec l'Iran

MADRID – Les toutes dernières négociations qui ont eu lieu à Genève entre l'Iran et le groupe P5+1 (les 5 membres permanents du Conseil de sécurité plus l'Allemagne) portent à un optimisme prudent. Il y a peut-être là une occasion de parvenir à un accord sur le programme nucléaire iranien. Les détails des négociations n'ont pas été rendus publiques, mais leur relatif succès est évident, d'autant que les parties se réuniront à nouveau le 7 et le 8 novembre.

Un rapprochement entre l'Iran et l'Occident, avant tout les USA, aurait un intérêt géostratégique pour tout le Moyen-Orient. L'Iran a encore tout un chemin à parcourir pour améliorer de manière permanente ses relations avec l'Occident, mais ce n'est pas le seul obstacle. D'autres acteurs d'importance stratégique doivent également être pris en compte.

Israël constituera sans l'ombre d'un doute un obstacle majeur sur la voie d'un accord. Au moment même où les négociations débutaient à Genève, le Premier ministre israélien Benyamin Netanyahou déclarait devant la Knesset qu'il n'excluait pas la possibilité d'une attaque préventive contre les installations nucléaires iraniennes.

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