De la derrota de Al Asad a la derrota de Al Qaeda

MADRID – La Conferencia de Paz Ginebra II, que se celebrará el 22 de enero, llega con 130.000 muertos, con 2,3 millones de refugiados sirios registrados en los países vecinos –gravemente desestabilizados– y casi cuatro millones de desplazados internos. Líbano es el primer destino: acoge a más de 800.000 sirios en su territorio. Jordania y Turquía tienen a más de medio millón de refugiados cada uno, Irak más de 200.000 y Egipto casi 150.000. Las estremecedoras cifras que deja la guerra civil en Siria, que va a cumplir tres años este mes, son simplemente inaceptables.

Lo que a principios de 2011 parecía una nueva fase de las revueltas árabes se ha convertido en el peor conflicto de lo que llevamos de siglo. Al Asad ha contado en todo momento con el apoyo internacional explícito de Rusia. Rusia, por lo tanto, ha tenido estrategia desde el principio. Occidente, en cambio, no: Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea se han mantenido titubeantes y sin objetivos claros. Arabia Saudí, Turquía y Catar han mantenido, por su parte, la misma posición desde el comienzo del conflicto y han apoyado a la oposición suní, mientras que Irán y Hezbolá –chiitas– apoyaron al régimen.

La guerra en Siria es una manifestación del complejo problema geopolítico que caracteriza a la región y que se define por el enfrentamiento entre suníes y chiitas. Es la base del combate latente por el control regional que libran Arabia Saudí, suní, e Irán, chií. Sin embargo, debido a la radicalización de la oposición el conflicto sirio se ha complicado. Nos encontramos con una situación de muñecas rusas, que incluye ahora un conflicto dentro de los propios suníes: los menos extremistas frente a las filiales de Al Qaeda. Los choques entre ellos, de hecho, han dejado en los últimos días ya más de 700 muertos.

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