阿富汗迷局

发自新德里——尽管阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊(Hamid Karzai)在谈判的最后时刻依然在耍手段,但美国和阿富汗双方似乎终于拿出了一份双边安全协议,以规管明年继续驻扎在阿富汗的8000~10000人武装部队(大部分是美军)。但阿富汗仍然是这个本来就不稳定的区域中一个重大不确定性——以及高度忧虑因素——的来源。

虽然阿富汗军队已经做好准备承担国家安全的全部责任,今年表现也出乎意料地好,但该地区的各国政府依然深切怀疑如果没有美国提供的强大支持,该国是否有足够的能力去抵抗死灰复燃的塔利班。如今美国人有意撤出,却没有国家愿意去接替它承担这一职责。

在这种情况下,恐怕阿富汗再次解体的预言将可能成为事实。实际上,只要仔细研究一下各国政府跟阿富汗打交道的手段,就会发现只有美国保持了一致的立场。

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