Abenomics voor Azië

TOKIO – Opnieuw is Japan binnen Azië het buitenbeentje. Twintig jaar lang is de Japanse economie nagenoeg stil blijven staan, terwijl de ene na de andere Aziatische economie floreerde. Maar nu de groei van het bruto binnenlands product (bbp) in de twee Aziatische reuzen, China en India, aanzienlijk is vertraagd – een inzinking die lijkt bij te dragen aan de mindere economische prestaties in een groot deel van de rest van Azië – registreert Japan de sterkste groei sinds de bloei van de jaren tachtig.

Maar net zoals het naoorlogse economische model van Japan de blauwdruk werd voor de Aziatische economische wonderen van de afgelopen tijd, kunnen de hervormingen die momenteel ten uitvoer worden gelegd door premier Shinzo Abe (“Abenomics”) de Aziatische economieën de weg terug wijzen naar sterke groei. Als we willen voorkomen dat de gevolgen van de groeivertraging in China de hele regio treffen en de economische integratie in gevaar brengen die al heeft plaatsgevonden, zullen de regeringen van de Aziatische landen – te beginnen met China – soortgelijke hervormingen moeten omarmen.

Hoe kon de Aziatische bloei zo snel wegkwijnen? De economie wordt geacht een saai onderwerp te zijn. Toch zijn succesvolle economieën kwetsbaar voor een van de gevaarlijkste emoties die er zijn: zelfgenoegzaamheid, die overdreven trots die Confucius al heeft veroordeeld. Die trots maakt regeringen bang om een winnend model te hervormen, zelfs als zich spanningen beginnen te openbaren.

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