Японские уроки для китайской валюты

Шанхай -- Вопрос о том, насколько должна подорожать китайская валюта, чтобы сбалансировать торговлю, стал глобальной темой. Но предлагаемые ответы далеко не однозначны, ибо некоторые считают, что курс юаня совсем не занижен, в то время как другие утверждают, что он должен подняться больше чем на 30% по отношению к доллару.

Очевидно, что для того, чтобы получить такой широкий диапазон оценок, используемые макроэкономические модели должны существенно отличаться друг от друга. Но, похоже, все согласны с теоретически и эмпирически необоснованным предположением, что равновесный обменный курс действительно существует.

Теоретическая проблемы проста: торговый баланс страны зависит от гораздо большего количества факторов, чем стоимость ее валюты на международных валютных рынках. Процентные ставки, уровень занятости, совокупный спрос, а также технологические и организационные инновации играют свою роль. Как отметила в 1947 году экономист Джоан Робинсон, любой обменный курс будет равновесным для определенного сочетания этих переменных. Равновесный обменный курс, согласно ее знаменитому утверждению, является химерой.

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