Japanese Lessons for China’s Currency

上海-中国的货币应该升值多少才能重新平衡贸易的问题已经成为全球热议的一个话题。但是对此的回答已经都摆到台面上来了。有人认为人民币的价值根本没有被低估,而另外一些人则认为它应该对美元升值超过30%。

他们的预测如此不同显然是因为他们所使用的宏观经济模型存在巨大差异。但是他们似乎都有一个共同点,就是在理论上和凭借经验主义不恰当地假设确实存在一个平衡的汇率。

理论上的问题很简单:对一个国家的贸易平衡产生影响的因素远远不止它的货币在外汇市场上的价值。利率、就业率、总需求以及技术和制度的革新都是影响贸易平衡的因素。正如经济学家琼·罗宾逊夫人在1947年所指出的,几乎所有汇率都是这些其他变量的某种混合体的平衡价值。她的一个有名的观点就是,所谓平衡的汇率完全是一个妄想。

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