Schafft Japan einen Neustart?

CAMBRIDGE – Die jüngsten Entscheidungen des japanischen Ministerpräsidenten Shinzo Abe, die geldpolitischen Impulse dramatisch auszuweiten, eine geplante Verbrauchsteuererhöhung zu verschieben und kurzfristig Neuwahlen für Mitte Dezember anzuberaumen, haben sein Land erneut in die vorderste Reihe einer hitzigen politischen Debatte katapultiert. Das Problem ist einfach: Wie können die alternden hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften nach der Finanzkrise wieder Wachstum zu schaffen? Die Lösung ist schwierig.

Es ist inzwischen klar, dass die erste Runde der als „Abenomics“ bekannten Reformen Abes dabei gescheitert ist, eine nachhaltige Inflation hervorzurufen. Die Hoffnung auf eine Fortsetzung der Konjunkturerholung hat inzwischen zwei Quartalen mit Negativwachstum Platz gemacht. Die Frage ist, ob die Abenomics 2.0 die japanische Volkswirtschaft wieder auf einen Pfad neuerlichen Wohlstands bringen werden.

Meine eigene Sicht ist, dass die Abenomics 1.0 mit ihren „drei Pfeilen“ im Prinzip richtig lagen: einer Geldpolitik, die alles tat, um wieder für Preissteigerungen zu sorgen, einer unterstützenden Fiskalpolitik und Strukturreformen zur Stärkung des langfristigen Wachstums. Doch obwohl die Zentralbank unter ihrem Gouverneur Haruhiko Kuroda ihren Teil des Geschäfts eingehalten hat, sind die anderen beiden „Pfeile“ hinter den Erfordernissen zurückgeblieben.

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