Dokáže se Japonsko znovu nastartovat?

CAMBRIDGE – Nedávná politická rozhodnutí japonského premiéra Šinzó Abeho – dramaticky zvýšit měnový stimul, odložit zvýšení spotřební daně a bleskově vypsat na polovinu prosince volby – navrátila jeho zemi do popředí intenzivní politické debaty. Problém je jednoduchý: Jak mohou stárnoucí rozvinuté ekonomiky oživit po finanční krizi růst? Řešení jednoduché není.

Dnes už je zřejmé, že první kolo Abeho reforem – známých jako „abenomika“ – nevyvolalo trvalou inflaci. Naděje na pokračující zotavení po dvou po sobě jdoucích čtvrtletích záporného růstu ochably. Otázka zní, zda abenomika verze 2.0 vrátí japonskou ekonomiku na cestu k obnovené prosperitě.

Můj osobní názor je takový, že „tři šípy“ abenomiky verze 1.0 byly správně zvolené: měnová politika na obnovu inflace „stůj co stůj“, podpůrná fiskální politika a strukturální reformy na podporu dlouhodobého růstu. Ačkoliv však centrální banka vedená guvernérem Haruhiko Kurodou svou část dohody splnila, zbylé dva „šípy“ abenomiky nedolétly dostatečně daleko.

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