日本能够重启吗?

美国剑桥—日本首相安倍晋三的最近的政策决定——大幅加码货币刺激、暂停消费税提高、决定在12月中旬举行大选——让日本又回到了激烈政策争论的前沿。问题很简单:老龄化发达经济体如何在金融危机后恢复增长?答案可不简单。

如今,很显然安倍的第一轮改革——被称为“安倍经济学”——没能带来持续通胀。如今,对持续复苏的希望已经因为连续两季度的负增长而烟消云散。问题在于安倍经济学2.0是否能让日本经济回到重新繁荣之路。

我本人的观点是安倍经济学1.0中的“三支箭”基本上都是有的放矢:重塑通胀的“竭尽全力”、支持性财政政策和提振长期增长的结构性改革。但是,尽管日本央行在黑田东彦的领导下完成了自己的使命,但安倍经济学的其他两支“箭”远远落后了。

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