Japan: Krise in Zeitlupe

TOKIO – Die wirtschaftliche Zukunft, die niemand will, heißt Japan. So ist es von amerikanischen, europäischen oder sogar chinesischen Spitzenpolitikern zu hören. Bei ihrer Überzeugungsarbeit für massive Konjunkturpakete und Rettungsmaßnahmen für Banken äußerten westliche Staats- und Regierungschefs gegenüber ihren Bürgern Sätze wie: „Wir müssen das machen, sonst wird es uns wie Japan ergehen und wir bleiben zehn Jahre oder länger in der Rezession und Deflation stecken.“

Chinesische Spitzenpolitiker verweisen besonders gern auf Japan, um zu begründen warum keine bedeutende Aufwertung ihrer deutlich unterbewerteten Währung zugelassen wird. „Führende Politiker westlicher Länder haben Japan gezwungen seine Währung in der zweiten Hälfte der 80er-Jahre aufzuwerten und das ist einer Katastrophe gemündet.“

Es stimmt, niemand möchte in den Schuhen des gefallenen Engels Japan stecken, das über dreißig Jahre zu den am schnellsten wachsenden Wirtschaftsnationen der Welt zählte und sich seit 18 Jahren nur noch dahinschleppt. Niemand möchte mit dem Trauma der Deflation (fallende Preise) leben, das Japan wiederholt erfahren hat. Niemand möchte sich einen Weg durch die prekäre Dynamik der Staatsverschuldung bahnen, mit der Japan es zu tun hat und die weit über 100% des BIP liegt (selbst wenn man die gewaltigen Devisenreserven im Besitz der japanischen Regierung berücksichtigt). Niemand möchte eine marktbeherrschende Position an der Weltspitze dagegen eintauschen als Paradebeispiel für wirtschaftliche Stagnation zu dienen.

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