Japon : une crise au ralenti

TOKYO – A écouter les dirigeants américains, européens et chinois, personne ne veut du même avenir économique que le Japon. Pour justifier le rachat des banques et les programmes de relance massive, les responsables du monde occidental ont expliqué à leurs électeurs : « Nous sommes obligés de passer par là ou nous terminerons comme le Japon, enlisés dans la récession et la déflation pour une dizaine d’années au moins. »  

Les dirigeants chinois aiment prendre le Japon à titre de contre-exemple (et raison principale) pour ne pas faire apprécier leur devise sous-évaluée de manière ostentatoire. « Les leaders occidentaux ont obligé le Japon à laisser sa devise monter durant la seconde moitié des années 1980, vous voyez la catastrophe qui a suivi. »

Eh oui, personne ne veut être la place du Japon, l’ange déchu qui est passé du statut d’économie à la croissance la plus rapide au monde pendant 30 ans à celle qui a régressé pour atteindre un stade balbutiant durant les 18 derniers mois. Personne ne veut vivre au quotidien le traumatisme de la déflation (ou chute des prix) que le Japon a connu de nombreuses fois. Personne ne veut subir la dynamique précaire de la dette budgétaire à laquelle le Japon doit faire face, le niveau de sa dette surpassant de loin les 100 % du PIB (même si l’on inclut les nombreux titres du gouvernement nippon en réserve en devises étrangères.) Personne ne veut passer de numéro un mondial à figure emblématique de la stagnation économique.

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