Japonská krize jako zpomalený film

TOKIO – Když člověk poslouchá americké, evropské, nebo dokonce čínské lídry, nikdo nechce ekonomickou budoucnost Japonska. Při propagaci masivních stimulačních balíčků a záchran bankovních domů západní lídři svým občanům říkali: „Musíme takto postupovat, abychom nedopadli jako Japonsko, na dekádu či ještě déle zabředlí do recese a deflace.“

Čínští lídři s oblibou poukazují na Japonsko jako na prvořadý důvod proč nedovolit výraznější zhodnocování jejich zřetelně podhodnocené měny. „Západní lídři přinutili Japonsko, aby ve druhé půli 80. let nechalo svou měnu stoupat, a podívejte se na pohromu, kterou to způsobilo.“

Ano, nikdo nechce být Japonskem, padlým andělem, který se z jedné z nejrychleji rostoucích ekonomik světa, což mu vydrželo třicet let, změnil v ekonomiku, která se v posledních 18 letech sotva vleče. Nikdo nechce žít s traumatem deflace (klesajících cen), jež Japonsko opakovaně zažívá. Nikdo se nechce prát se svízelnou dynamikou vládního dluhu, s jakou se potýká Japonsko, jehož hladiny zadlužení se pohybují vysoko nad 100 % HDP (i při započtení rozsáhlých fondů devizových rezerv držených japonskou vládou). Nikdo se nechce z pozice světové jedničky propadnout v odstrašující příklad ekonomické stagnace.

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