Los padecimientos de Japón se hicieron en Estados Unidos

The long bureaucratic struggle over whom to name as the next Governor of the Bank of Japan is over. Prime Minister Koizumi has chosen a career BOJ insider, Toshihiko Fukui, a man who is unlikely to rock the boat. The BOJ's hidebound policies are usually blamed for Japan's deflation. That guilt is real, argues Deepak Lal, but there is another culprit: American economic policy toward Japan.

Hoy en día es generalmente reconocido que una de las consecuencias no deseadas del modelo económico "asiático" fue una asignación cada vez más ineficiente del capital. La depresión crónica de Japón es un buen ejemplo. Las tasas internas de interés artificialmente bajas a finales de los años ochenta promovieron la inversión intensiva en capital, lo que presionó a la baja la tasa de rendimiento del capital de un promedio de alrededor del 12% en 1952-1973 a menos del 2% en 1996.

Pero lo que todavía queda por explicar es la temporalidad del boom y la caída de Japón a lo largo de los últimos 15 años, así como el por qué de la duración de la depresión del país. En su excelente libro, Dólar y Yen , Ronald McKinnon y Kenichi Ohno ofrecen una respuesta: la repetición de la endaka fukyo , una "recesión del yen fuerte", que los autores atribuyen a un "síndrome del yen fuerte", basado en las persistentes fricciones comerciales entre los EU y Japón.

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