Economics

كيف نجعل اليابان عظيمة مجددا

Oct 7, 2020 Bill Emmott

دبلن – ان رئيس الوزراء الياباني الجديد يوشيهيدي سوغا قد جاء للحكم وفي جعبته مجموعة من الأفكار الطموحة المتعلقة بالسياسات بما في ذلك خطط لرقمنة الخدمات الحكومية واحياء المصارف الإقليمية في البلاد ولكنه لم يأتي بعد بمفهوم شامل ممكن ان يتفاعل معه عامة الشعب. أنا لدي فكرة وهي ان يعلن سوغا انه بحلول سنة 2030 ستكون اليابان في وضع يؤهلها الاستفادة القصوى من أفضل مورد طبيعي تمتلكه وهو الشعب الياباني نفسه.

عندما كان العالم في ثمانينات القرن الماضي ينظر بإعجاب لليابان لتعلم الدروس عن كيفية إدارة الاقتصاد، كان من المفترض ان مفتاح قوة البلاد يكمن في قدرتها على الاستفادة من المهارات الضخمة المتوفرة لدى شعبها. لقد كانت اليابان عندئذ مجتمع يتمتع بأجور وانتاجية مرتفعة بالإضافة الى كونه مجتمع آمن للغاية ويضم أنظمة تعليمية تعتبر الأفضل في العالم. لقد كان خريجو المدارس الثانوية والجامعات في اليابان يتلقون نظير ولاءهم التدريب والتطوير من أصحاب العمل ولكن بالطبع كان هذا التدريب ينطبق فقط على نصف الشعب فقط أي الرجال.

بعد مضي أربعة عقود من ذلك التاريخ ما تزال اليابان تتمتع بنظام تعليمي متميز والذي تمكن من ادخال تحسينات جذرية على التفاوت بين الجنسين. لقد كان على معظم النساء اليابانيات في ثمانينات القرن الماضي الاكتفاء بالتعليم الجامعي المحدود لمدة عامين حيث كانت نسبة التحاق الفتيات اليابانيات بالتعليم الجامعي لمدة أربع سنوات اقل من 15% مقارنة بنسبة 35-40% للأولاد. ان هذه الفجوة التعليمية تفسّر لماذا يوجد في اليابان عدد قليل جدا من النساء في مناصب قيادية حتى يومنا هذا.

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j. von Hettlingen Oct 9, 2020

Bill Emmott says Japan’s new prime minister, Yoshihide Suga, who recently succeeded Shinzo Abe, must ditch “the 30-year-old emphasis on cheap labor” and increase the minimum wage to improve ordinary people’s livelihoods. Japan should revisit its past as “a high-wage, high-productivity, highly secure society.” Having one of the world’s best education systems, Japan could tap into a highly educated workforce and turn the country into “the Switzerland of Asia, not its US”.
The Japanese economy was once one of the most successful in the world. It began to take off in the 1970s. As the envy of the world in the 1980s, “it was assumed that the key to the country’s strength lay in its ability to tap a deep well of talent.” Employees are expected to to work extremely long hours. “In exchange for loyalty, Japanese high-school and university graduates alike received lifelong training and development from their employers.”
Following the collapse of the fabled economic miracle of the 1980s, Japan’s economy suffered a prolonged recession. At the behest of corporate leaders, “successive Japanese governments…..have departed from the legacy of high wages and high job security, in favor of a cheap-labor strategy.” This may have been “appropriate as an emergency measure to avert mass unemployment after Japan’s 1990 financial crisis, but it makes no sense as a long-term strategy for a highly educated, aging country at the technological frontier. Moreover, it is simply hypocritical where women are concerned.”
The author says, “in 1990, 80% of Japanese workers were employed on permanent, highly secure contracts. But by 2019, nearly 40% were on insecure short-term contracts, owing to the relaxation of labor regulations over the past three decades.” Since then, stable employment has been elusive for many people now in their 30s and 40s. The other problem is that “as the working-age population has declined, millions of women and retired people have been recruited to maintain employment levels.”
Yet these people are hired as short-term workers, “with many earning the minimum wage” (which is one of the lowest among OECD countries). Japan should make the “best possible use” of its female work force. Over the past 30-40 years, “the share of Japanese girls leaving high school for a four-year university has risen to 50%, compared to 55% of boys. The pipeline of future female leaders is now much larger.” In 2014 Abe announced new measures to bring women into the labour market, saying Japan could not afford not to. He expected that 30% of leadership positions would be held by women by 2020.
The female employment rate has risen significantly since 2012, reaching 64.7% in 2015, well above the 58.5% OECD average. Nevertheless, total working hours of women have remained stable, as rising part-time employment has reduced their average working hours. Despite this massive expansion of “human capital” (education and talent), its effective deployment has lagged behind, even reversing in some respects, for both men and women.
The author points out the “extraordinary mismatch between Japanese workers’ educational achievements and employment.” Besides, the gender gap in employment remains large, with the rate for women 17% points below that of men, the sixth-largest gap in the OECD. He believes the only way to boost Japan’s long-term growth is to focus on social harmony and income equality. Business leaders need to raise the minimum wage, without which household consumption will remain weak.
It is not good for growth if “employers have little incentive to invest in the human capital of part-time, short-term employees." With "corporate spending on training and development" in decline, and "relative poverty rates" on the rise, this puts Japan far "closer to the United States than to egalitarian countries such as Denmark in this respect.”
It remains to be seen whether Suga will continue the economic path his predecessor, Abe had paved. He might as well reinvent Abenomics, whose three-pronged approach aimed at combating deflation and reviving economic growth with loose monetary policy and fiscal spending, alongside structural reforms to cope with a rapidly aging population has been a lacklustre performance.
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كيف نجعل اليابان عظيمة مجددا

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