Comments 5

跨太平洋伙伴关系的第二春

May 24, 2017 Minxin Pei

发自克莱蒙特——当美国总统特朗普在去年1月让美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协议时，许多观察家都认为这一决定会是中国的福音。但即便如此，这一状况可能也无法长久。

上述传统智慧构建于简单的经济和地缘政治逻辑之上。中国已经成为亚洲各国最大的贸易伙伴，也因此不可避免地获得了战略杠杆。这一逻辑认为：由于各邻国对中国市场的依赖程度日益加深，美国对该地区的影响力将逐渐下降。

前总统奥巴马的政府认识到了中国在东亚地区的经济主导地位所产生的深远影响。为此奥巴马及其顾问团队希望通过建立跨太平洋伙伴关系这么一个以美国为中心的新贸易集团，以抵制中国的影响力，维护美国在这一全球最具活力地区的军事和经济地位。

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shanmugham anand May 29, 2017

Trump said NATO is obsolate.He backtracked.
He said China manipulates its currency. Again he backtracked.
Because he has Mattis, Tillerson & McMaster.
He badly requires such advisers on economics & trade. Give him some room for compromise, he will come back to TPP with more vigour.
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j. von Hettlingen May 28, 2017

Minxin Pei claims the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will not be shelved, even though Trump abandoned it when he took office in January, claiming he needed to protect American jobs. The author says the remaining 11 countries - Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei - could still carry on with the deal without the US.
The TPP was Obama's hallmark achievement. He had made a "pivot" to Asia as part of a US foreign policy, that pursued American interests - "military and economic primacy in the world’s most dynamic region." The goal was to bind Pacific nations closer through lower tariffs while also serving as a buttress against China’s growing clout in Asia.
The author says, due to decades of dependence on the US, Trump's withdrawal from the TPP would only mean ceding the region to China. He sees three scenarios that define the fate of this deal. Autocratic regimes - Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia and Laos - that have no ideological or territorial disputes with Beijing....will undoubtedly jump on the Chinese bandwagon," looking for a replacement for "what the US provides." Australia, South Korea, and Singapore are said to have "adopted a hedging strategy, whereby they maintain close security relations with the US while taking advantage of China’s enormous market."
However, India and Japan - "two regional powers that cannot imagine living in a China-dominated Asia" - have taken matters into their own hands. As they no longer can rely on the US for "protection and oversight of free trade," they resort to a "self-help strategy." by taking "proactive measures to counter Chinese power on their own, not least by banding together." This would draw in countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, "which have also resisted falling into China’s orbit."
What speaks in favour of an Indian-Japanese alliance is the friendship between Narendra Modi and Shinzo Abe, who knew each other from an earlier stint. A week ago Japan declared it would "continue to push ahead with the TPP... without US participation." The bid to revive the TPP, which would have covered 40% of the global economy, was led by trade ministers from Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Without the US, "the remaining 11 Pacific-rim countries will have much less economic heft.... But in 2016, these countries’ combined GDP still exceeded $10 trillion, which is only slightly less than China’s GDP of $11 trillion." If the deal is backed by the 11 countries, the author believes South Korea and Indonesia "will be tempted to join." It will be fanstastic to form "a new regional trading bloc," that "could partly fill the void left by America’s withdrawal."
The problem is that smaller countries are attracted by opportunities and advantages offered by bigger countries. The US and China are the world's two largest economies. Although the door will still be kept open for the US to rejoin the club, its trade representative said it would not return to the TPP. Trump has made a decision, and he thinks bilateral are better for the US than multilateral negotiations. Australia hopes that China and Indonesia would join. It wouldn't be a bad idea to take China on board, because this would enrage Trump. But Japan wouldn't like it. But it's unlikely that Beijing be interested, because it - like Trump - prefers bilateral to multilateral deals.
It's also unlikely that India would join the TPP. There is no clear consensus in India on whether expanded market access will help the Indian economy grow, and whether the gains will be worth the potential costs to some still-protected Indian industries. To qualify for membership India would have to prepare itself for more significant market opening as well as enhanced standards than it has committed to in the past.
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Tok Koon Chia May 26, 2017

Frankly speaking, I am bemused by this article. It seems to suggest that a "Sino-centric Asia" is an inherently bad thing and yet I do not see any persuasive evidence that it is the case, other than that China has a heretical government with heterodox values. Instead of making a "substantial sacrifice" to counterbalance China for symbolic gains, surely it would be better for everybody to sit down and earn money together?
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Rohit Raj May 24, 2017

Are there citations available to prove the countries getting onboard?
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http://prosyn.org/bfraMlR/zh;

跨太平洋伙伴关系的第二春

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