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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has stoked fears that Chinese President Xi Jinping is plotting his own aggression against Taiwan. The United States and its NATO allies seem to be “all in” on repelling Russia’s invasion, but how far will the US be willing to go to defend Taiwan, and has its longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” on that question really run its course?
东京—上个月，我参加了在东京举行的皇家国际事务研究所（Chatham House）/大和研究所（Daiwa Research Institute）英国脱欧后日本-英国关系会议，这是我近六年前从高盛离职后第一次回到日本。在这次日本之旅之前，我从1988年开始定期访问日本，因此，从略微拉开的距离上观察事物是有裨益的。
总体而言，2019年的日本反角比其他发达经济体相对稳定一些。十年前，如果日本继续表现出G7最高的真实（经通胀调整的）人均GDP增长率，我不会感到吃惊。
诚然，这个十年到目前为止，日本GDP年增长率平均只有1.1%；但其人口下降和劳动力人数减少已经转化为更强劲的人均表现。事实上，考虑到日本所面临的人口挑战，它的表现可能远远超出了长期增长潜力。
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