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japan sunrise Richard Atrero de Guzman/NURPhoto

日本的太阳升起了吗?

东京—上个月,我参加了在东京举行的皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House)/大和研究所(Daiwa Research Institute)英国脱欧后日本-英国关系会议,这是我近六年前从高盛离职后第一次回到日本。在这次日本之旅之前,我从1988年开始定期访问日本,因此,从略微拉开的距离上观察事物是有裨益的。

总体而言,2019年的日本反角比其他发达经济体相对稳定一些。十年前,如果日本继续表现出G7最高的真实(经通胀调整的)人均GDP增长率,我不会感到吃惊。

诚然,这个十年到目前为止,日本GDP年增长率平均只有1.1%;但其人口下降和劳动力人数减少已经转化为更强劲的人均表现。事实上,考虑到日本所面临的人口挑战,它的表现可能远远超出了长期增长潜力。

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