Tokyo stock market Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Das ökonomische Dilemma Japans

CAMBRIDGE – Die japanische Wirtschaft ist eine paradoxe Mischung aus Wohlstand und Scheitern. Und der Wohlstand steht auf entscheidende Weise der Lösung der Probleme im Weg.

Jedem, der Tokio besucht, sticht der japanische Reichtum ins Auge. Der Lebensstandard ist hoch: Das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen lag im Jahr 2015 (bezogen auf die Kaufkraftparität) bei 38.000 Dollar und damit nahe am französischen und britischen Durchschnitt von 41.000 Dollar. Die Arbeitslosenquote ist mit 3,3% deutlich niedriger als in den USA oder der Eurozone, wo sie bei 5% bzw. 10% liegt.

Im Moment aber leidet die japanische Wirtschaft unter Deflation. Die Konsumentenpreise waren im März niedriger als im Jahr zuvor, und das reale BIP geht zurück. Trotz Kreditkosten nahe Null beträgt das Haushaltsdefizit fast 7% des BIP, und die Staatsschulden liegen bei über 230% des BIP. Die Bevölkerungszahl und die Erwerbsbevölkerung gehen zurück, was in Zukunft noch höhere Verschuldungsquoten erwarten lässt.

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