taylor12_CHANDAN KHANNAAFP via Getty Images_janet yellen Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images

财政部的货币思维

斯坦福大学—旦珍妮特•耶伦（Janet Yellen）宣誓就任，没有哪位美国财长会像她一样，会如此频繁地就货币政策发表意见，并具有如此高的权威性。唯一一位成为财政部长的前美联储主席是1979年的G.威廉·米勒（G. William Miller），但他在美联储只待了一年。相比之下，耶伦此前在那里工作了20年，经历了起起落落，先后担任过经济学家、旧金山联邦储备银行行长、美国联邦储备委员会副主席和主席。

耶伦作为财政部高层中如此有经验的领导人，将对未来几个月甚至几年的货币政策规则和策略产生重大影响。在预测耶伦可能会做什么的时候，需要了解其较长的历史。1996年，当她还是美联储行长时，她在主题为“货币政策：目标和策略”的演讲中谈到了政策规则。她以《泰勒规则》为例子，说：“作为对政策应该如何执行的规范描述，它是具有吸引力的。”

耶伦在列举其中一些特性时指出，泰勒规则有一个“长期通胀目标”，而且它需要“一种处理权衡的策略......在系统性长期战略的背景下采取”。事实证明，它 “在面对各种冲击时，表现非常好”，而且它可以“帮助美联储向公众传达政策行动背后的理由”。

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