¿El canto de cisne de Rusia?

RZESZOW – Cuando ya están en marcha los Juegos Olímpicos de invierno en Sochi, Rusia vuelve a estar en el candelero mundial y el Presidente Vladimir Putin está aprovechando la oportunidad para presentar su país como una potencia resurgente, pero, bajo la jactancia y la fanfarria, hay dudas poderosas sobre el futuro de Rusia. En realidad, las tendencias a largo plazo de los precios de los recursos minerales de los que depende su economía, junto con la historia de Rusia (en particular, los dos últimos decenios de gobierno soviético), indican que la suerte de Putin puede muy bien estar a punto de acabarse.

Por lo general, los ciclos de los precios de los recursos minerales comienzan con una subida que dura entre ocho y diez años, seguida de un periodo más largo de precios estables y relativamente bajos. Como los precios han estado subiendo desde mediados del decenio pasado, deberían empezar a bajar dentro de dos años, si no lo han hecho ya. Además, la última depresión de los precios duró más de veinte años, lo que significa que Rusia no puede esperar simplemente a que escampe.

Pero, aparte de reconocer la necesidad de reducir el gasto, imperativo evidente después de dedicarse 50.000 millones de dólares, aproximadamente, a los Juegos Olímpicos de Sochi, Putin no ha indicado plan concreto alguno para abordar las deficiencias económicas de Rusia.

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