Russlands letzter Akt?

RZESZÓW – Angesichts der derzeit in Sotchi stattfindenden Olympischen Winterspiele steht Russland einmal mehr im globalen Rampenlicht – und Präsident Wladimir Putin ergreift die Gelegenheit, sein Land als eine wieder erstarkende Macht zu präsentieren. Doch hinter all der Großtuerei verbergen sich ernsthafte Zweifel über Russlands Zukunft. Tatsächlich legen die langfristigen Preistrends für mineralische Rohstoffe, von denen die Volkswirtschaft abhängt, aber auch die russische Geschichte (und insbesondere die letzten beiden Jahrzehnte der Sowjetherrschaft) nahe, dass Putins Glückssträhne bald vorbei sein könnte.

Im Allgemeinen beginnen Rohstoffzyklen mit einem 8-10 Jahre dauernden Anstieg, gefolgt von einer längeren Phase stabiler, relativ niedriger Preise. Angesichts der Tatsache, dass die Preise seit Mitte des letzten Jahrzehnts gestiegen sind, dürfte innerhalb der nächsten zwei Jahre ein Preisverfall einsetzen – falls das nicht schon geschehen ist. Zudem dauerte die letzte Niedrigpreisphase mehr als 20 Jahre; also kann Russland es sich schlicht nicht leisten, einfach abzuwarten, bis diese Phase vorbeigeht.

Doch abgesehen von der Notwendigkeit von Ausgabekürzungen – eine offensichtliches Gebot nach den geschätzten 50 Milliarden Dollar, die die Olympiade in Sotchi gekostet hat – hat Putin bisher keinerlei konkrete Pläne angedeutet, wie er Russlands wirtschaftliche Schwächen bekämpfen will.

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