Ucrania y Asia: volver al futuro

NUEVA YORK – Mientras tropas rusas ocupan territorio ucraniano, la Armada china patrulla aguas territoriales filipinas en el mar de China Meridional. Parece que el mundo hubiera retrocedido en la máquina del tiempo hacia un pasado peligroso.

En materia de geopolítica, lo que están haciendo Rusia y China es una vuelta a poner en práctica las reglas del siglo XIX, cuando los estados competían sumando poder duro en un sistema de nacionalismo desbocado y rígidas soberanías nacionales. De hecho, parece que el presidente ruso, Vladímir Putin, quisiera recrear el mapa decimonónico de la Rusia zarista, con su determinación de no soltar Crimea, Abjasia, Osetia del Sur y otras partes del viejo imperio ruso pase lo que pase.

Por su parte, Beijing está haciendo efectivo su reclamo de soberanía en el mar de China Meridional, en clara violación de la Convención de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Derecho del Mar, sobre la base de vagas historias de pasados imperios. Los dos países actúan como si el poder fuera un juego de suma cero supeditado a las viejas reglas de la realpolitik.

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