Comments 6

العودة إلى المستقبل في أوكرانيا وآسيا

Mar 10, 2014 Jamie Metzl

نيويورك ــ مع احتلال القوات الروسية لأرض أوكرانية وتمركز البحرية الصينية في المياه الإقليمية في بحر الصين الجنوبي، يدخل العالم الآن حقبة زمنية بالغة الخطورة.

من الناحية الجيوسياسية تعيد روسيا والصين تفعيل القواعد التي كانت سائدة في القرن التاسع عشر، عندما كانت الدول تتنافس عن طريق حشد القوة الصارمة في نظام يقوم على النعرة القومية الجامحة وسيادة الدولة الجامدة. والواقع أن الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتن يبدو وكأنه يحاول إعادة تجميع خريطة روسيا القيصرية في القرن التاسع عشر من خلال التشبث بشبه جزيرة القرم وأبخازيا وأوسيتيا الجنوبية وأجزاء أخرى من الإمبراطورية القديمة بأي ثمن.

وعلى نحو مماثل، تقوم الصين بتعليم مطالباتها في بحر الصين الجنوبي في انتهاك كامل لاتفاقية الأمم المتحدة لقانون البحار استناداً إلى أساس من التواريخ الغامضة لإمبراطوريات غابرة. وكل من البلدين يتصرف الآن وكأن القوة لعبة محصلتها صفر تمليها القواعد القديمة لسياسة الأمر الواقع.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 in all 6 Comments on this article

james durante Mar 16, 2014

OK if this is "our Hobbesian world" then what the hell is the author even going on about??! Wow--an undergrad paper of this sort would get a C minus for a gratuitous mixing of philosophical assumptions. If this is what we have for global investment advisor, NSC member and state dept. officer then we are in a world of hurt.
james durante Mar 16, 2014

This glossing over of Iraq allows Metzl to hold on to the ideological tenet of American exceptionalism. Was the Cheney-Wolfowitz administration not "behaving as if power is a zero-sum game dictated by the old rules of Realpolitik?" fter all, the whole point of the axis of evil was to establish US hegemony for the long term--the New American Century. This could only be achieved if US military power was extended by establishing a direct presence in key regions. Just as in the case of torture, the US lost whatever credibility it might have had with the occupation of Iraq. The Russian and Chinese moves appear quite benign by comparison.
Carl Rylett Mar 12, 2014

An interesting article but I disagree with its conclusion. As soon as you make compromises on the rule-based international system, as George W Bush did in Iraq, you lose moral authority, and head down a slippery slope to 'nineteenth century' might-is-right geopolitics.

For supporters of democracy, freedom and rule of law (east, west, north and south), these three concepts and the principles underlying them are our greatest weapons. Don't blunt them by comprising on them.

And to those who seem to believe no westerner has the right to criticise Putin because of previous mistakes, I really can't see the inconsistency in criticizing both Bush's war in Iraq and Putin's actions in Crimea. Two wrongs don't make a right
Jeff GE Mar 11, 2014

Using "soft power" to overthrow a democratically elected government is 21st century behavior, while Putin responded forcibly is 19 century behavior. It is precisely such self-righteous attitude coupled with ignorance that is the West's problem. Rightly or wrongly, Putin moves to protect what he sees as Russia's vital interest. Calling it 21st or 19 century behavior does not change anything.
Carol Maczinsky Mar 11, 2014

Wait, drone killing in other sovereign nations is "twenty-first-century, G-8, major-nation behavior". Let's face it, the West broke the deals first when it expanded NATO eastwards. Now it sponsored another revolution in the backyard of Russia and expects to get its way. It won't. So far not much damage is done. If Russia takes Crimea, so be it. No big deal. Poor Ukraine which we convinced into nuclear disarmament. In fact the Russians move drive Ukraine towards the West. Excellent. As long as we avoid a hot civil war the results will be okayish.
Gerry Hofman Mar 11, 2014

If Russia taking control of Crimea means it's going back to practicing 19th century politics, then what was the American led invasion of Iraq all about again? Oh, don't remind me, it was about freedom, democracy and national security, right?
Europeans don't want Ukraine, it's just another corrupt and bankrupt country to them. And Crimea is just the tail end of it, the bit that most belongs to Russia anyway. But American interests presently focus on pushing Russian influence back to the Russian border, thereby expanding western influence eastwards. It's still the same 19th century politics, like it or not, but served up with a thick coating of hypocrisy.

http://prosyn.org/utG8wAu/ar;

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العودة إلى المستقبل في أوكرانيا وآسيا

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