O curto prazo de longa duração

BERKELEY – Antes de 2008, ensinava aos meus alunos que a economia dos Estados Unidos era flexível. Havia empregadores dispostos a arriscar a contratação de trabalhadores desempregados que, a seu ver, se tornariam produtivos; e havia trabalhadores dispostos a aproveitar oportunidades, ou a experimentar algo novo de modo a conseguir emprego. Enquanto as entidades empregadoras e os trabalhadores empreendedores aproveitavam essas oportunidades, a oferta criava a sua própria procura.

Sim, costumava afirmar, os impactos com efeitos adversos na despesa podiam, de facto, originar desemprego em massa e capacidade não utilizada, mas estes efeitos limitar-se-iam a um período de um, dois, ou, no máximo, três anos. Então, após o abrandamento inicial, a economia norte-americana recuperaria, todos os anos, cerca de 40% do intervalo entre a situação actual e o seu potencial de pleno emprego.

Eu afirmava que o domínio do curto prazo keynesiano (e monetarista) correspondia a período de 0 a 2 anos. Analisando os acontecimentos num horizonte de 3 a 7 anos podia-se assumir, com segurança, um modelo “clássico”: a economia voltaria ao pleno emprego e as mudanças na política e no ambiente económico alterariam a distribuição, mas não o nível da despesa, produção e emprego. O domínio do crescimento económico e das instituições económicas encontrava-se além dos 7 anos.

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