长短期

伯克利—2008年以前,我给学生上课时说美国是一个灵活的经济体。美国的雇主在看到受雇员工生产率不错时愿意冒险和雇用员工;美国的员工也愿意抓住机会,或尝试新东西以获得工作。老板具有企业家精神,员工愿意抓住机会,于是供给就创造了其自身的需求。

是的,我曾经说,不利的支出冲击确实可能造成大量失业和闲置产能,但这一效应将只会维持一两年,最多三年时间。而每一个最初衰退结束后的首年,美国经济都会收复当前状况和充分就业状况之间的约40%的失地。

我说,凯恩斯主义(和货币主义)的短期期限是0—2年。在分析3—7年期的事件时,我们最好假设“古典”模型:经济将回到充分就业,政策和经济环境的变化将改变支出、产出和就业的分配而不是水平。超过七年则已经进入了经济增长和经济制度领域。

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