美国在日本化吗?

伯克利—20世纪80年代末,日本是经济学家眼中的完美典范。从高科技精密行业到可贸易商品大规模制造业,日本对北大西洋都拥有显而易见的竞争优势。从二战废墟中复兴的日本经济表现大大超越了欧洲经济体的预期增长率。与处于相同绝对和相对全经济生产率水平阶段的北大西洋经济体相比,日本经济增长速度要快得多。

20世纪80年代末的最靠谱的预测是,机械化、计算机化和机器人化将一一到来。政治和经济压力将引导更多日本行业经历向机械密集型高生产率组织模式的转变,这是出口导向型制造业已经经历过的(也是北大西洋地区农业和分销等部门已经或正在经历的)。

这一预测认为,日本的工作伦理将会持续,日本的高储蓄率和低人口增长率将让它获得显著的资本密集度——以及劳动生产率——优势,此外还有全要素生产率方面的全经济优势。此外,毗邻存在拥有大规模低工资工人储备的国家仍日本能够实现地区劳动分工,既能充分利用其收入高、教育层次高的劳动力,也能将低技能、低工资因而也是低生产率的岗位外包给亚洲大陆国家。

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