再看美联储危机

伯克利—通读刚刚发布的2008年美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议记录,我发现在问一个同样的首要问题:是什么导致了FOMC对发生在它眼皮底下的危机视而不见?

平心而论,颇有些人明白局面的真正性质。正如《华尔街日报》的希尔森拉斯(Jon Hilsenrath)所指出的,时任纽约联储市场小组执行副主席的达德利(William Dudley)展示了一份内部研究,礼貌但咄咄逼人地试图将要人的注意力转移到应有的焦点上来。FOMC委员耶伦(Janet Yellen)、科恩(Donald Kohn)、罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)和米什金(Frederic Mishkin)以及华盛顿的美联储理事会显然也抓住了达德利的要点。但FOMC的其他八名委员和其余高级官员呢?恐非如此(尽管程度上差异很大)。

在阅读这份会议记录时,我想到了遥远的历史,足以追溯到1825年及以前。在历史上,不受控制的大银行倒闭会触发恐慌、逃向质量、资产价格的崩溃,以及萧条。但在2008年9月的FOMC报告中,许多委员沾沾自喜于发现了采取不拯救雷曼兄弟的不可思议的决定的好处。

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