Lo Strano Caso Della Iniquità Americana

BERKELEY – A meno di imprevisti, nel 2014 il livello del PIL reale pro capite degli Stati Uniti raggiungerà e supererà il livello del 2007. Questa non è una buona notizia.

Per capire perché, si consideri che durante i due cicli economici che hanno preceduto la crisi del 2007 il PIL reale pro capite dell’economia americana è cresciuto ad un ritmo medio annuo del 2%; anzi, il PIL è cresciuto a quel tasso per un secolo o giù di lì. Quindi il prodotto americano è oggi dopo sette anni al di sotto -del 14%- del livello che era stato ragionevolmente previsto nel 2007. E non c’è nulla all’orizzonte che possa riportare l’economia degli Stati Uniti a livelli anche prossimi al suo percorso di crescita antecedente all’esplosione della crisi finanziaria del 2008. L’unica consolazione -invero desolante- è che l’Europa e il Giappone vanno molto peggio rispetto alla soglia di riferimento del 2007.

Il calo di prestazione pro capite annuale dell’economia statunitense nel 2014 sarà quindi pari a 9 mila dollari. Ovvero 9 mila dollari a persona all’anno in beni di consumo durevoli non acquistati, vacanze non godute, investimenti non fatti, e così via. Entro la fine del 2014, la perdita cumulativa pro capite dovuta alla crisi e alle sue conseguenze darà un totale di circa 60 mila dollari.

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