Podivný případ americké nerovnosti

BERKELEY – Pokud se v roce 2014 nestane něco nečekaně špatného, pak úroveň reálného HDP na obyvatele ve Spojených státech vyrovná a překoná úroveň z roku 2007. To není dobrá zpráva.

Abychom pochopili důvod, vezměme v úvahu, že během dvou hospodářských cyklů, které předcházely poklesu z roku 2007, rostl reálný HDP na obyvatele v americké ekonomice průměrným tempem 2% ročně; tímto tempem se ostatně reálný HDP na obyvatele zvyšoval zhruba celé století. Výkonnost americké ekonomiky je dnes tedy o sedm let – neboli o 14% – pod úrovní, která se v roce 2007 dala rozumně očekávat. A na obzoru není nic, co by americkou ekonomiku vrátilo – nebo alespoň přiblížilo – na růstovou dráhu, po níž se pohybovala před vypuknutím finanční krize v roce 2008. Jedinou útěchou – a je to opravdu chmurná útěcha – zůstává skutečnost, že Evropa a Japonsko si ve srovnání s rokem 2007 vedou podstatně hůře.

Roční výpadek výkonnosti americké ekonomiky na obyvatele se tak v roce 2014 bude rovnat částce 9000 dolarů. To znamená, že 9000 dolarů na obyvatele za rok nebude vynaloženo na nákup zboží dlouhodobé spotřeby, na dovolené, na investice a tak dále. Do konce roku 2014 budou kumulativní ztráty na obyvatele v důsledku krize a jejích dopadů činit zhruba 60 000 dolarů.

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