El banquero central del mundo

BERKELEY – La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos en estos días está muy feliz con su política monetaria. Pero, desde mediados de 2007, su política ha sido insuficientemente expansionista. La política con más probabilidades de éxito hoy en día sería análoga a la implementada por la Fed en 1979 y 1933, Gran Bretaña en 1931 y Shinzo Abe hoy.

Quienes tememos que la estrategia de la Fed haya agravado profundamente el malestar de la economía estadounidense y esté transformando el desempleo cíclico de Estados Unidos en un no-empleo estructural de largo plazo y permanente hemos perdido la batalla de la política monetaria doméstica. Pero existe otro debate sobre las políticas que hay que tener en cuenta. La Fed no es sólo el banco central de Estados Unidos; es el banco central del mundo.

El régimen de tipo de cambio actual de Estados Unidos es un régimen de tasas flotantes -o al menos de tasas que pueden flotar-. En los años 1950 y 1960, economistas como Milton Friedman suponían que un régimen global de tipos de cambio flotantes sería un régimen en el cual los valores de la moneda se movían lenta y gradualmente a la par de las diferencias en las tasas de inflación y crecimiento de la productividad de la economía.

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