O banqueiro central do mundo

BERKELEY – Nos dias de hoje, a Reserva Federal dos Estados Unidos está amplamente satisfeita com a sua política monetária. Mas, desde meados de 2007, a sua política tem sido insuficientemente expansionista. A política com mais probabilidade de ter sucesso neste momento seria análoga à aplicada pela Fed em 1979 e 1933, pela Grã-Bretanha em 1931 e por Shinzo Abe hoje.

Aqueles que temem que a abordagem da Fed aprofundou muito o mal-estar da economia dos EUA e que está a transformar o desemprego cíclico da América num permanente não-emprego estrutural a longo prazo perderam o argumento da política monetária nacional. Mas há outro argumento relacionado com a política que precisa de ser adicionado. A Fed não se resume apenas a ser o banco central dos EUA; é o banco central do mundo.

O actual regime de taxas de câmbio da América é um regime de taxas variáveis – ou pelo menos de taxas que podem variar. Nas décadas de 1950 e 1960, economistas como Milton Friedman partiram do princípio que um regime global de taxas de câmbio variáveis seria um regime no qual os valores da moeda moviam-se lentamente e gradualmente juntamente com diferenças na inflação da economia e nas taxas de crescimento de produtividade.

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