Il banchiere centrale del mondo

BERKELEY – Negli ultimi tempi la Federal Reserve sembra soddisfatta della sua politica monetaria, anche se a partire dalla metà del 2007 non è stata in realtà sufficientemente espansionistica. Il tipo di strategia che ad oggi avrebbe senza dubbio successo è una politica simile a quella implementata dalla Fed nel 1979 e nel 1933, dalla Gran Bretagna nel 1931 e attualmente da Shinzo Abe.

Chi teme che l’approccio della Fed abbia peggiorato le difficoltà dell’economia statunitense e che stia trasformando una fase ciclica di disoccupazione statunitense in una forma di disoccupazione strutturale a lungo termine, ha perso qualsiasi argomentazione nazionale sulla politica monetaria. Ma c’è un altro elemento argomentativo che bisogna considerare: la Fed non è solo la banca centrale statunitense, bensì la banca centrale del mondo.

Il regime attuale che regola il tasso di cambio americano è quello del tasso fluttuante. Negli anni cinquanta e sessanta, alcuni economisti, tra cui Milton Friedman, pensavano che il regime globale di un tasso di cambio fluttuante comportasse un’oscillazione lenta e graduale legata alle differenze dei tassi di crescita/produttività e dell’inflazione dell’economia.

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