La Banque centrale du monde

BERKELEY – Ces derniers jours, la Réserve fédérale américaine s'est montrée dans l'ensemble très satisfaite de sa politique monétaire. Mais depuis le second semestre 2007, sa politique a été insuffisamment expansionniste. La politique la plus susceptible de réussir en ce moment devrait être analogue à celle mise en place par la Fed en 1979 et en 1933, par la Grande-Bretagne en 1931 et par Shinzo Abe aujourd'hui.

Ceux d'entre nous qui craignent que l'approche de la Fed n'ait considérablement aggravé le malaise de l'économie américaine et ne transforme le chômage cyclique en un non-emploi permanent conjoncturel à long terme ont perdu le fil de l'argument de politique monétaire nationale. Mais il faut y ajouter un autre argument politique. La Fed n'est pas seulement la Banque centrale des États-Unis : c'est la Banque centrale dumonde.

Le régime de taux de change actuel des États-Unis est un des taux flottants, ou du moins un des taux qui peut flotter. Dans les années 19050 et 1960, certains économistes comme Milton Friedman ont supposé qu'un régime global des taux de change flottants devait être un régime dans lequel les valeurs des devises évolueraient lentement et graduellement à côté des différences des taux d'inflation et des taux de productivité et de croissance de l'économie.

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