全世界的中央银行家

发自伯克利——美联储在最近这段时间都对自身货币政策感觉相当满意。但自从2007年年中以来,其政策的扩张性都是不足的。而很可能随后推行的政策则会跟该机构在1979和1933年,英国在1931年和日本安倍晋三政府当前实施的类似。

我们这类担心美联储的手段导致美国经济困境极大恶化并导致其周期性失业转变为持久性长期结构性非就业的人们已经在其国内货币政策讨论中败下阵来。但还有另一场政策讨论需要我们的参与。美联储不仅是美国的中央银行,它也是全世界的中央银行。

美国当前的汇率体系是浮动汇率的其中一种——或者至少是可以浮动的汇率中的一种。在上世纪50~60年代,米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)等一批经济学家假设浮动汇率的全球体系将是一个货币价值沿着经济体的通胀及生产力增长率的各类差异变化缓慢而逐步变化的体制。

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