La grandísima depresión

BERKELEY – Primero aconteció la crisis financiera de 2007. Luego, se convirtió en la crisis financiera de 2008. Posteriormente, sobrevino la recesión de 2008-2009. Finalmente, a mediados de 2009, la situación se denominó como la “Gran Recesión”. Y, debido a un cambio en el ciclo económico, que mostró una trayectoria ascendente a finales de 2009, el mundo entero lanzó un suspiro colectivo de alivio. Se creía que ya no nos iríamos a desplazar hacia la siguiente etiqueta, que hubiese contenido la muy temida palabra que empieza con la letra “D”.

Pero la sensación de alivio fue prematura. Contrariamente a las afirmaciones de los políticos y sus asesores de alto rango sobre que el “verano de la recuperación” había llegado, Estados Unidos no experimentó un patrón en forma de “V” que denota una reactivación económica, tal como ocurrió después de las recesiones de finales de la década de 1970 y principios de los años ochenta. Y, la economía de Estados Unidos se mantuvo muy por debajo de su anterior tendencia de crecimiento.

De hecho, desde el 2005 al 2007, el PIB real (ajustado por la inflación) de EE.UU. creció en un nivel apenas superior al 3% anual. Durante la caída económica del año 2009, la cifra fue menor en un 11% – y desde aquel entonces ha bajado un 5% adicional.

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