La Maggiore Depressione

BERKELEY – Dapprima, la si è chiamata crisi finanziaria del 2007. In seguito è diventata la crisi finanziaria del 2008. Poi è stata la recessione del 2008-2009. Infine, a metà del 2009, è stata soprannominata la “Grande Recessione”. E, alla fine del 2009, con lo spostamento del ciclo economico su una traiettoria al rialzo, il mondo ha tirato un sospiro di sollievo. Non vorremmo, si pensava, passare all’etichetta successiva, che inevitabilmente conterrebbe la temuta parola che comincia per D.

Ma il senso di sollievo è stato prematuro. Contrariamente alle affermazioni dei politici e dei loro consulenti esperti, che l’ “estate del recupero” era arrivata, gli Stati Uniti non hanno sperimentato un modello di ripresa rapida (a forma di V), come avvenuto dopo le recessioni alla fine degli anni settanta e all’inizio degli ottanta. E l’economia statunitense è rimasta ben al di sotto del suo precedente trend di crescita.

Infatti, dal 2005 al 2007, il PIL reale (al netto dell’inflazione) degli Stati Uniti è cresciuto poco più del 3% annuo. Durante la recessione del 2009, la cifra era inferiore all’11% - e da allora è sceso di un ulteriore 5%.

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