更大萧条

伯克利—先是2007年金融危机。然后变成2008年金融危机。接下来是2008—2009年衰退。最后,在2009年年中,它被冠以“大衰退”之名。而当2009年年底商业周期进入上行轨道时,世界各国纷纷大舒一口气。人们相信我们不必在给它贴新标签了,要不然那个可怕的D字打头的单词(“萧条”)肯定得出现。

但我们高兴得太早了。与政客及其高级幕僚所宣称的“夏季复苏”已经到来相反,美国并未如20世纪70年代末、80年代初那样发生V型经济反转。美国经济仍然远低于此前的增长趋势。

事实上,从2005年到2007年,美国真实(经通胀调整)GDP每年只增长了3%。2009年低谷时这一数字是下降11%,并且此后又下降了5%。

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