El mundo de Putin

VIENA – El Occidente ahora está viviendo en el mundo de Putin. Esto no se debe a que Putin tenga la razón, o incluso, no se debe a que él sea más fuerte, sino que esto ocurre porque él está tomando la iniciativa. Putin es “audaz”, mientras que el Occidente es “cauteloso”. No obstante que los líderes europeos y estadounidenses reconocen que el orden mundial está experimentando un cambio dramático, ellos no pueden llegar a captar dicho cambio en su totalidad. Los líderes continúan abrumados por la transformación de Putin, desde su papel de Presidente Ejecutivo de Rusia, Inc., a su actual papel de líder nacional impulsado ideológicamente que no se detendrá ante nada para restaurar la influencia de su país.

La política internacional puede basarse en tratados, pero funciona sobre la base de expectativas racionales. Si esas expectativas resulten estar equivocadas, el orden internacional vigente se derrumba. Eso es precisamente lo que ha ocurrido durante el curso de la crisis ucraniana.

Hace apenas unos meses, la mayoría de los políticos occidentales estaban convencidos de que, en un mundo interdependiente, un revisionismo sería demasiado costoso y que a pesar de la determinación de Putin en cuanto a defender los intereses de Rusia en el espacio postsoviético, él no recurriría a la fuerza militar para hacerlo. Ahora está claro que estaban dolorosamente equivocados.

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