Le monde de Poutine

VIENNE – L’Ouest vit maintenant dans le monde de Poutine. Il se retrouve dans cette position non pas parce que Poutine a raison, ni même parce qu’il est le plus fort, mais parce que c’est lui qui prend l’initiative. Poutine est « l’électron libre », tandis que l’Occident est « l’éternel indécis ». Même s’il est vrai que les dirigeants européens et américains se sont rendu compte que l’ordre mondial est en train de connaître des changements radicaux, ils n’ont pas saisi toute la portée des événements. Ils sont demeurés subjugués par la métamorphose de Poutine qui est passé de son rôle directeur général de la Russie des oligopoles à celui d’un chef suprême de la nation motivé par l’idéologie qui ne recule devant rien pour restaurer l'ancienne suprématie de son pays sur la région.

La politique internationale est sans doute fondée sur des traités, mais elle opère surtout sur le plan des anticipations rationnelles. Si ses attentes ne se réalisent pas, l’équilibre international actuel se défait de lui-même. C’est précisément ce qui est arrivé au cours de la crise ukrainienne.

Il y a à peine quelques mois, la plupart des politiciens occidentaux étaient convaincus que dans un monde interdépendant, le révisionnisme était trop coûteux faisant en sorte que malgré la détermination de Poutine de défendre les intérêts de la Russie postsoviétique, il n’aurait pas recours aux armes. Il est maintenant évident qu’ils se sont gravement trompés.

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