Europa al estilo italiano

MILÁN – El verano pasado, pasados dos años de creciente incertidumbre, el riesgo sistémico en la zona del euro finalmente comenzó a reducirse, a medida que se consolidaron compromisos condicionales. Italia y España ofrecieron reformas fiscales y orientadas al crecimiento creíbles, y el Banco Central Europeo, con el respaldo alemán, prometió intervenir lo necesario para estabilizar al sector bancario y a los mercados de deuda soberana.

Desafortunadamente, esa tendencia puede estar revirtiéndose. El crecimiento en la zona del euro ha sido, en términos generales, negativo; y significativamente en el sur. El desempleo se mantiene en aproximadamente el 12 % en Italia y el 38 % para los jóvenes. De igual manera, la tasa de desempleo en España está por encima del 25 % (y del 55 % para los jóvenes). Y los indicadores económicos franceses están empeorando rápidamente.

Mientras tanto, lo más probable es que el resultado de la elección italiana deje a ese país –la tercera mayor economía en la zona del euro y el tercer mercado mundial de deuda soberana– sin un gobierno estable. En consecuencia, será difícil mantener un programa de reforma suficientemente vigoroso como para satisfacer al BCE y al núcleo de la zona del euro.

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