L’Europe, version italienne

MILAN – L'été dernier, après deux ans d'incertitude grandissante, le risque systémique dans la zone euro avait finalement commencé à décliner, lorsque les engagements conditionnels furent réunis. L'Italie et l'Espagne avaient offert des réformes crédibles de leur fiscalité et de promotion de la croissance ; la Banque centrale européenne, avec le soutien de l'Allemagne, avait promis d’intervenir autant que nécessaire pour stabiliser le secteur bancaire et les marchés de la dette souveraine.

Malheureusement, cette tendance pourrait s'inverser. La croissance dans la zone euro a été négative dans l'ensemble, et de manière particulièrement significative dans le sud. Le taux de chômage s'élève à environ 12% en Italie et 38% pour les jeunes. De même, le taux de chômage en Espagne dépasse les 25% (et 55% pour les jeunes). Par ailleurs, les indicateurs économiques français sont en train de glisser rapidement.

Pendant ce temps, le résultat des élections en Italie laissera très probablement le pays – la troisième plus grande économie de la zone euro et le troisième plus grand marché de la dette souveraine du monde – sans gouvernement stable. En conséquence, il sera difficile de maintenir un programme de réforme qui soit assez vigoureux pour satisfaire la BCE et le cœur de la zone euro.

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