PD Secretary Matteo Renzi speaks during the Italian Social Democratic Party PD National Assembly on December 15, 2013 in Milan, Italy Vittorio Zunino Celotto/Getty Images

Qué se juega en el referendo italiano

MILÁN – En los últimos 68 años, Italia celebró 17 elecciones generales y unos pocos referendos. Pero sólo tres de sus votaciones concitaron tanta atención internacional: en 1948, cuando la elección fue entre Occidente y el comunismo; en 1976, cuando los votantes tuvieron que tomar una decisión similar, entre la democracia cristiana y el “eurocomunismo” de Enrico Berlinguer; y ahora, con un inminente referendo sobre reformas constitucionales.

La próxima votación tiene profundas implicaciones. El primer ministro Matteo Renzi apostó su futuro político en el referendo, y prometió que dimitirá (aunque no de inmediato) si las reformas son rechazadas. Ese resultado también debilitaría irreparablemente a la coalición gobernante de centroizquierda: el Partido Democrático (PD) de Renzi ya está agitado por luchas internas en torno a las reformas, y es posible que termine dividido incluso si el referendo sale como espera el primer ministro.

Una derrota de Renzi se leería como una victoria de los dos principales partidos populistas de Italia: la Liga Norte y el (más grande) Movimiento Cinco Estrellas, liderado por el comediante Beppe Grillo. Aunque no son aliados, ambos partidos se nutren del mismo sentimiento antisistema y promueven “soluciones nacionales” a los problemas de Italia (comenzando con el regreso a la lira italiana).

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