PD Secretary Matteo Renzi speaks during the Italian Social Democratic Party PD National Assembly on December 15, 2013 in Milan, Italy Vittorio Zunino Celotto/Getty Images

Ставки на итальянском референдуме

МИЛАН – За последние 68 лет в Италии состоялось 17 всеобщих выборов и несколько референдумов. Но лишь трижды голосование в Италии попадало в центр международного внимания: в 1948 году, когда делался выбор между Западом и коммунизмом; в 1976 году, когда перед избирателями стоял схожий выбор – между христианскими демократами и «еврокоммунизмом» Энрико Берлингуэра; и сейчас, когда предстоит референдум по вопросу о конституционной реформе.

Последствия предстоящего голосования огромны. Премьер-министр Маттео Ренци поставил своё политическое будущее на этот референдум, пообещав уйти в отставку (хотя и не сразу), если реформа будет отвергнута. Кроме того, подобный исход непоправимо ослабит левоцентристскую правящую коалицию: Демократическую партию Ренци уже сейчас раздирает внутренняя борьба по вопросу о реформе. Не исключено, что Демпартия не сможет избежать раскола, даже если голосование завершится в пользу премьер-министра.

Поражение Ренци будет воспринято как победа двумя крупными популистскими партиями Италии – Лигой Севера и более многочисленным «Движением пяти звёзд», которое возглавляет комический актёр Беппе Грилло. Эти две партии не являются союзниками, но обе выросли на антиэлитных настроениях и выступают за «национальные решения» итальянских проблем, начиная с возврата к итальянской лире.

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