Matteo Salvini speaks at the annual Northern League Meeting

L’Euro dei Populisti

Jun 12, 2018 Barry Eichengreen

BERKELEY – La maggioranza degli Italiani vuole due cose: una nuova leadership politica e l’euro. La domanda è se è possibile averle entrambe.

Il punto sulla nuova leadership è incontrovertibile. I due partiti populisti di governo del paese, la Lega e il Movimento Cinque Stelle (M5S), insieme hanno ottenuto il 50% dei voti nelle elezioni politiche generali del 4 marzo e, di conseguenza, hanno la maggioranza in entrambe le camere del parlamento. Tale maggioranza può essere esigua, ma le elezioni, in cui i principali partiti di centro-destra e centro-sinistra hanno guadagnato solo il 33%, sono state un clamoroso ripudio dello status quo.

Il secondo punto è meno noto, ma anche meno controverso: recenti sondaggi dimostrano che il 60 -72% degli Italiani è favorevole all’euro. Alcuni credono che la moneta unica salvaguardi i loro risparmi, mentre altri la considerano un emblema dello status dell’Italia quale membro fondatore dell’Unione Europea. Ma seppure i motivi sono diversi, il bilancio dell’opinione pubblica non lo è.

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Peter Schaeffer Oct 10, 2018

In real life, Italy can probably get away with almost anything. Why? Because the rest of Europe will never expel Italy from the Euro. Expelling Italy from the Euro would mean the end of the Euro (and quite possibly Europe). Since, that's not on the table, Italy's freedom to maneuver is rather large.
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Wim Roffel Jun 18, 2018

This article creates a false dichotomy by suggesting that doing what Brussels want and populist overspending are the only options. In fact both have been tried and didn't work. What is needed is a dialogue to find better ways. Unfortunately dialogue is a word that is unknown in Brussels.
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Paul Hanly Jun 12, 2018

The population wants a magic pudding. They would prefer the easier route of a softer and falling currency doing the adjustment to increase the relative competitiveness of the italian economy rather than the constant internal adjustment required when you are part of a currency union and use a currency controlled by another entity and agree to various fiscal boundaries such as deficit caps. On the other hand they want to retain membership of the European Monetary Zone and continue to use the Euro.

The PIIGS could have defaulted on their debts at the start of the crisis, formed an alternative bloc to the euro, let the PIIGS currency unit fall in relation to the Euro, let those who remained in the Euro worry about the hit to their banks and the rise in their currency relative to the rest of the world. They could have governed for investment off the back of their competitive currency (and internationally lower wages and imposed import duties into their zone so the well off did not buy imported goods in preference to PIIGS zone goods.

In any event, they are now a substantial way through the realignment of their societies to more closely resemble other EMZ countries and may probably just as well continue in the EMZ, partially so that refugees from Africa and the Middle East can easily transit to other European countries.

As the author implies, almost anything could happen because of the misalignment of wants and approaches.

But this is moreso given the fluidity of alliances within Italian politics. This game of chicken has a lot more players. The others are the politicians and parties in Italian government who will shift support as public opposition grows to any policy with substantive impact. In Italy governments are sometimes brought undone at relatively short notice and without serving a full term in a way that rarely happens in other countries.
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