European Union (EU) and Italian national flag banners hang in central Rome

Comments 18

ماذا تعني أزمة إيطاليا من منظور أوروبا

May 30, 2018 Lucrezia Reichlin

ميلانو ــ منذ استحوذت حركة النجوم الخمسة الشعبوية وحزب الرابطة اليميني المتطرف على أغلبية برلمانية مشتركة في انتخابات الرابع من مارس/آذار في إيطاليا، وصلت السياسة الإيطالية إلى طريق مسدود، في ظل التصارع بين الحزبين لتشكيل الحكومة. ولكن الآن، بعد أن رفض الرئيس الإيطالي سيرجيو ماتاريلا اقتراح تقدم به ائتلاف حركة النجوم الخمسة/حزب الرابطة بتعيين رجل الاقتصاد باولو سافونا المشهور بتشككه الشديد في أوروبا في منصب وزير الاقتصاد والمالية، اتخذ الوضع هناك منعطفا دراميا.

بدلا من استكشاف بدائل أكثر اعتدالا، تخلى الائتلاف عن المفاوضات ودعا إلى إجراء انتخابات جديدة. وأعقبت محاولة لتشكيل إدارة تكنوقراطية مؤقتة من اختيار ماتاريلا بصِدام مع الشعبويين، والذي كان ليؤدي إلى أزمة دستورية ويصيب الأسواق بالفزع. والآن يبدو أن الموقف تغير مرة أخرى، وعادت حكومة ائتلافية إلى الطاولة. لكن الموقف يظل مائعا للغاية ــ ومتقلبا.

هذه هي المرة الأولى في تاريخ إيطاليا بعد الحرب التي يحاول فيها ائتلاف من أحزاب تنتمي إلى أطياف سياسية متطرفة تشكيل حكومة في غياب أي مساهمة من القوى الوسطية. من جانبهما، تمثل حركة النجوم الخمسة وحزب الرابطة جمهورين انتخابيين مختلفين، ولكن ربما متداخلين. ففي حين يقع معقل حركة النجوم الخمسة في الجنوب الإيطالي الفقير، فإن حزب الرابطة يتمركز في شمال البلاد المزدهر، حيث يبدي مجتمع كبير من الأعمال والمشروعات الصغيرة الخوف من الهجرة، والعولمة، والضرائب المرتفعة.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 18 in all 18 Comments on this article

Barry Rosenfeld Jun 1, 2018

Whenever the will of the people cannot be manipulated successfully by the establishment, palpitations ensue. Given the state of Italian economic performance since 2008, the author still claims that "[t]he economic agenda proposed by Italy’s populist parties is fanciful and unconvincing." Somehow the results of the agenda to which the voters said "NO" i s implicitly accepted as the correct one. Moreover, if the state is to be run by "technocrats" is the author suggesting a Platonic Philosopher-King regime? And what does this say about democracy?

As well, the author fails to distinguish between the EU and the Euro. The latter has proven to be an imposition of an incomplete federalism on a nation-state otherwise independent. A monetary union in the absence of a fiscal union and is a recipe for bad economic policies. Moreover, the several languages spoken in the EU makes "internal" EU migration very difficult relative the true federal states, such as Germany (Canada to a large extent), and the US.
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Peter Schaeffer May 31, 2018

The EUSSR has lost any pretense of legitimacy and is dying. The decision of Sergio Mattarella to veto the finance minister proposed by the elected government of Italy was the final straw. Democracy in Europe is over. China now has a more democratic government than much of Europe. The UK was wise to leave.
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Jonathan Engel May 31, 2018

Perhaps in some future history, to be written in a couple of centuries by a Chinese built AI, there might be a number of keys identified as the one(s) which destroyed the European Union as an organisation of increasingly reluctant states. These would likely include the absurdity of the extension of a Deutchmark zone, renamed the Euro, to Southern Europe; the Lisbon agreement foisted on a population which rejected it when asked for their opinion; or the insanity of Frau Merkel’s junking of Europe’s sovereignty, fought for for a millennium by European Kings and Knights, just because Germany’s fertility rate was collapsing. Which one the AI determines as of larger dimensionality than the others will be commented on sites such as this for at least a couple of weeks, before the subject changes perhaps to a “what if” Bitcoin had been invented before the Euro, and whether this would have been a better idea ….
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Mauricio Duran-Loriga May 31, 2018

You should listen to Italian people, from all walks of life, they have a mantra in unison. Since the introduction of the Euro, the country has totally stalled. Brussels apparatchiki should have listened long ago. Now it is just a matter of when, not if, for Italy to leave the ill-designed currency.
When we hear Italian politicians ask for a 25% ECB held debt haircut, we should listen. Italy has primary surplus. So they can leave the club any day and say CIAO to foreign bondholders. That is not a end of times forecast. Just a financial calculation, and believe me, big debtor countries make that sort of math. Countries with primary deficit can not leave the club, or else, face tremendous shortages at home, with the resulting social unrest (Remember Greece).
The ECB is in a rocky position. If it monetizes all European bonds, there is no longer excuse to keep the Euro alive. But if a country like Italy defaults on its Euro foreign obligations, it's going to be an ordeal to find a sellable excuse as to keep the Euro alive also.
Tic, Tac.
- Peter Lintner Jun 1, 2018
  
  You nailed it. Since eurozone, read Germany, refuse any constructive talk about eurozone reform, Italy (with primary surplus) need to default on all foreign-held bonds, except Chinese, leave eurozone and create its own currency. After initial turmoil, things would settle and Italy would have its fate in own hands, instead of slavishly kowtowing to German dictats.
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david belay May 30, 2018

Give me a break! The Germany-led EU doesn't want to engage in any discussion, with any kind of leadership. Punkt! Remember Greece 2015? That is exactly why we are here and why it's more or less hopeless.
- M M May 31, 2018
  
  DB, O. Scholz (the pupil of Schauble), made a statement today that confirms what you said in your comment.
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- M M May 31, 2018
  
  DB, O. Scholz (the pupil of Schauble), made a statement today that confirms what you said in your comment.
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- M M May 31, 2018
  
  DB, O. Scholz (the pupil of Schauble), made a statement today that confirms what you said in your comment.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- M M May 31, 2018
  
  DB, O. Scholz (the pupil of Schauble), made a statement today that confirms what you said in your comment.
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Henk Crop May 30, 2018

The author sums up what is wrong in the Italian economy. It's development will definitely have impact on the other Eurozone members.
However given the nature of the analysis it will primarily be up to the Italians themselves to address the issues.
With new political parties, not tied to the establishment, getting in control offers great opportunities.
They may have some wild ideas, but they will mellow when faced with reality.
They could also hire outside experts, like from the World bank.
On immigration they can find practical ideas in Denmark.
My suggestion: begin teaching your children ( and unemployed youth ) the English language. It will open up the World to them.
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M M May 30, 2018

And the point of this article is? The problems of Italy have been known for a very long time, nothing new there. There is no point in blaming the current actors. The President of Italy, Mr. Mattarella has made a calculated move, instead of running the risk of a confrontational approach with the EU in the short term, he kicked the can down the road by coinciding any new general election in Italy with the upcoming European Parliament elections in 2019 and thus by doing so, he pursued the course of an Italian and Pan-european election on the EU instead of it being only Italy vs the EU! The EU has been considering this week to channel extra funds into Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal in order to bribe the voters but as always it is too little too late. A decade has passed since the 2008 financial crisis and nothing concrete has happened to deal with the real causes of the crisis.
- andrea naldini May 30, 2018
  
  I share the anlysis but I would add two elements. 1) the blockage of any useful reform is not simply the result of a unfit elite, but the reproduction of a power system which cannot survive to an effective reform. The fragmentation and the inequality of our society have made impossibile, for instance, a property tax or a serious administrative reform. The League and the 5s want to leave the Euro since they believe that this will permit them to save this power system. An illusion but a convincing narrative hardly to deny with simple slogans. 2) EU policy has been a failure in the past years; it has to be recognised that the EU leaders have been unable to make the need for an inclusive Europe effective. The obsession for the debt and the banks on one hand, and the false panacea of R&D and competition on the other hand have cancealed any serious demand and social policy. The differences in costs and productivity are not addessed by a common policy, but remain an individual problem in a irralistic 'zero sum' game. In this way political crisis will occurred again and again (think for instance to the poor welfare state of Eastern countries when growth decreases, signals were visible also in their recent elections). A make up of the ESM and the EU insititutions is not sufficient, a real awareness of the real problems and a more deep reform of the EU would be necessary.
  - M M May 30, 2018
    
    Andrea, thank you for your engaging comment. I could not agree more with you. If you had been following my comments here on PS, I've been saying exactly the same for very many years. The Eurocrats are pursuing a "Federal State" project. The EU citizens, in the majority, and this includes the Brits, are against such a project and they never voted for it and are too aware of its misgivings, unlike the not so smart architects of it. In order to deal with peoples greivances, their daily affairs and concerns, decentralisation is the only answer. Any centralisation of power is doomed to fail, sooner or later.
    - Henk Crop May 31, 2018
      
      MM. Decentralization is the only solution. But Juncker and Macron are still trying to sell the "necessary reforms" that will give them more control over the Euro and our money.
      - M M May 31, 2018
        
        Henk, Juncker's days are numbered and Macron has too many fish to fry. Their plan won't happen, the best they can do is to channel some money that is under their direct control (like they did this week) to influence this or the other country. In the whole of the EU, Germany today has got the best democratic system, only if it could be replicated across the EU.
        
        Henk Crop Jun 1, 2018
        
        Germany will destroy the EU with its policy of unlimited immigration.
        
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stephan Edwards May 30, 2018

I can't read President Matarella's mind obviously, But it was a Mistake of truly astonishing size for him to appoint an IMF bureaucrat as interim Prime Minister. It is at best a slap in the face to the voters. At worst and most likely an increase perhaps has high as 10% in voters for the extreme parties for the insult. Perhaps the man is the best qualified, I couldn't say, But the best choice? If the President wanted to convince the voters that Italy was being run to benefit international finance interests and not those of the Italian people I must congratulate him he did. After all when was the last time Italy was actually run by anyone but a technocratic appointee? It's been a while.

The time for the reform such as the author talks about is past. Even if reform plans such as the author talks about were on table right now (and the EU is singularly uninterested in reform that benefits the average worker). It could not be implemented in time to change a single vote. The time for reform was 10 years ago now is way to late. But bluntly the powers preferred the status quo to any reform, now the reaction has arrived in Italy, The UK and others to come. If only because the powers whom the status quo has benefited so mightily. Completely and Utterly ignored the fact for the average voters the standard of living was SINKING not rising despite all the claims GDP may have been rising but the average worker doesn't pay his bills with GDP he pays it with WAGES. But you say the EU had nothing to do with sinking living standards and wages. Perhaps not, but the EU is surely the symbol of the status quo, A status quo that has made their lives worse. And you honestly expect them to vote for the Status Quo WHY? I personally think neither 5star nor the league could run a one light town in the middle of nowhere. But they still remain more attractive then the status quo. Which says what about how things are working for the average voter?
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ماذا تعني أزمة إيطاليا من منظور أوروبا

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